Just four weeks remain in the regular season and it'll be a mad dash to the finish line as clubs jockey for playoff position, adding a little more spice to picks down the stretch. I'll be looking to end the year on a strong note after I've hung just a tick over .500 on my picks over the last few weeks. While that's certainly better than losing more bets than we win, there's room for us to cash in as we close out the regular season.This week, I'm backing three home dogs inside my locks of the week, including a team that nearly earned a straight-up win over the , who we'll be fading
Jim Brown Jersey in Week 15. Before we get into my locks and the rest of my picks for this upcoming slate -- which includes three Saturday games -- let's take a quick look at where I stand on the year as a whole. Regular seasonLocks of the Week ATS: 32-34-4ATS:94-107-7ML:128-78-2 Featured Game | Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots Moneyline Spread Total LV NE New England has a knack for taking advantage of team's mistakes and having that catapult them to victory and that's exactly what happened on Monday against Arizona. had a carele s fumble that was scooped up and taken into the end zone, which completely flipped the script of that game in the Patriots' favor. Outside of that, it was another game where the New England offense looked completely lost. was visibly frustrated and was facing a solid amount of pre sure due to poor play at the tackle spots. That weakne s along the O-line will only be highlighted further with and firing off the edge for Las Vegas and let's not forget that Josh McDaniels has intimate knowledge of Jones and the rest of the Pats offense. The Raiders are certainly capable of making self-destructive mistakes that could be their undoing, but New England's offense is too lost to trust.Projected score:Raiders 24, Patriots 21The pick:Raiders +1 Featured Game | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Dallas Cowboys Moneyline Spread Total JAC DAL Don't look now, but is starting to look like a No. 1 overall pick. Over the last five games, the Jags QB has been a top-five player at his position. His completion percentage (72%) and TD-INT ratio (10-0) rank first among quarterbacks over that stretch and his pa ser rating (111.7) and pa sing yards per game (272.4) also rank top five in the league. Jacksonville will need Lawrence to continue this breakout as it faces a Cowboys team that is averaging an NFL-best 35.7 points per game since returned from his thumb injury in Week 7. While the Cowboys boast a
Ozzie Newsome Jersey top-flight offense and arguably the best defense in the league, they've had a theme of playing down to their competition at times this season, including last week against Houston where they nearly lost as a 16.5-point favorite. You'd think that a scare like that would focus the Cowboys even more against the Jaguars, but there's also the chance that Jacksonville could catch them looking ahead to their mega-matchup against the in Week 16. This game feels like it'll be within a field goal, which happily allows me to grab the Jags at +4.5.Projected score:Cowboys 27, Jaguars 24The pick:Jaguars +4 Featured Game | New York Jets vs. Detroit Lions Moneyline Spread Total NYJ DET If you had told me over the summer that Lions-Jets would be game to watch once Week 15 rolls around, I would've laughed in your face but here we are. This head-to-head at MetLife Stadium has MASSIVE playoff implications for both conferences as each of these teams are within striking distance of leaping
Jaelen Strong Jersey into the postseason picture.While Detroit has been the darling of the NFL over the last few weeks (6-0 ATS), don't overlook what New York has put together. The Jets are 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games and have a defense that ranks sixth in DVOA this season. That unit should be able to hold down what has been a white-hot Lions offense. While Detroit's offense has played well, is a much worse quarterback on the road than he is at Ford Field. He's thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (2) on the road this season and his team is averaging just 18.4 points per game on the road (32.1 ppg at home). With expected to play in this game, the Jets offense should be able to move the ball enough to pull out the win here. Projected score:Jets 27, Lions 23The pick:Jets PK Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Moneyline Spread Total BUF MIA Has the NFL figured out how to stop the Dolphins offense? Sure looks like it. Over the last two weeks, Miami has been held in check offensively as defenses have pre sed receivers but then have dropped back into zone with two high safeties and no blitz. That has worked extremely well as the Dolphins have dropped two straight and the offense has screeched to a halt. Their 46% completion percentage is the lowest in the NFL over this stretch and their yards-per-attempt average has dropped to 7.2 from 9.0. That blueprint plays well into the Bills' hands as they play pre s coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL (80%).Not
Chad Thomas Jersey only is there now a path to figuring out this offense but the weather is also expected to be a factor in this game as well. The early forecast calls for 28 degrees and 16 mph winds. has never played an NFL game in freezing temperatures but is 0-4 with a 61.6 pa ser rating in the four coldest games of his career. Those factors have me laying the points and rolling with the Bills.Projected score:Bills 28, Dolphins 20The pick:Bills -7.5 Featured Game | Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline Spread Total HOU KC Basically, the same le son as last week when we took the Texans at +17 -- when the number equals or exceeds two touchdowns, it's more often than not the safer play to just take the points, especially when it's a home dog. Dating to the start of last season, home underdogs of 14+ are 5-0 ATS and have won outright twice. To shrink that even lower, home dogs of 11+ are 11-2 ATS. See my point? While I certainly expect the Chiefs to win this matchup,
Bernie Kosar Jersey Houston should be able to keep this within the number either by playing K.C. tight for four quarters as it did against Dallas or via the backdoor. The Texans defense isn't something to trifle with either as it has allowed the fewest pa sing touchdowns in the NFL this season. It also ranks fourth in pre sure rate, fifth in lowest completion percentage allowed and eighth in lowest pa ser rating allowed.Projected score:Chiefs 30, Texans 17The pick:Texans +14 at Projected score:49ers 23, Seahawks 21The pick:Seahawks +3 at Projected score:Vikings 27, Colts 20The pick:Vikings -4 at Projected score:Ravens 24, Browns 21The pick:Ravens +3Eagles at Projected score:Eagles 30, Bears 23The pick:Bears +9 at Projected score:Saints 24, Falcons 21The pick:Falcons +4 at Projected score:Panthers 23, Steelers 17The pick:Panthers -2.5 at Projected score:Cardinals 23, Broncos 21The pick:Cardinals +3 at Projected score:Chargers 24, Titans 23The pick:Titans +3 at Projected score:Bengals 27, Buccaneers 21The pick:Bengals -3.5 at Projected score:Commanders 27, Giants 21The pick:Commanders -4.5 at , MondayProjected score:Packers 27, Rams 17The pick:Packers -7